Ni na voljo v slovenščini.
Giorgia De Nora
- 25 June 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 29Details
- Abstract
- This article looks into residential real estate (RRE) lending standards, focusing on their key determinants and assessing the implications of loose lending standards for financial stability and the real economy. Two key insights emerge. First, lending standards tend to be procyclical – i.e., they become looser during economic upturns and tighter during downturns. Second, loose lending standards amplify the effects of negative housing market shocks on the real economy and heighten financial stability risks via an increase in the probability of default of households.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 11 June 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3061Details
- Abstract
- We study the impact of cyclical systemic risks on banks’ profitability in the euro area within a panel quantile regression model, with the ultimate goal to inform the calibration of the Countercyclical Capital buffer (CCyB). Compared to previous studies, we augment our model to control for unobserved bank-specific characteristics and year-fixed effects and find a lower degree of heterogeneity in the estimated effects across the conditional distribution of bank returns on assets. We propose a simple yet intuitive framework to calibrate the CCyB through the cycle, including the socalled "positive neutral" rate. The model suggests a target positive neutral rate for the euro area ranging from 1.1% to 1.8%. Furthermore, the calibrated CCyB rates are consistent with the evolution of domestic cyclical systemic risks in the countries considered. The results further show that the adoption of a positive neutral CCyB approach allows for an earlier and more gradual build-up of the buffer, but does not lead to higher CCyB requirements at the peak of the cycle. Importantly, a positive neutral CCyB strategy would have implied that most euro area countries would have had a positive CCyB in place at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 4 April 2025
- THE ECB BLOGInstitutional investors are increasingly active in housing markets across Europe. The ECB blog examines implications for house price growth and the transmission of monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 13 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3026Details
- Abstract
- Institutional investors, such as investment funds, are playing an increasingly important role in residential real estate markets. This raises the possibility that their actions might drive aggregate market outcomes and may change how and which macrofinancial shocks transmit to house prices. In a Bayesian vector autoregression setting, we show that a demand shock from institutional investors has a positive and persistent effect on aggregate euro area house price growth and mortgage lending volumes. Institutional investors also increase their purchase activity following a loosening of monetary policy. Exploiting regional heterogeneity in eight euro area countries, we show in a panel regression setting that institutional investors weaken the link between house price growth and local economic fundamentals, but strengthen the sensitivity to monetary policy and financial market developments.
- JEL Code
- R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 20 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Understanding the drivers of the current downturn in commercial real estate (CRE) can provide insights into the outlook for the market and potential spillovers to the financial system and wider economy. This box uses a BVAR model to show that monetary policy and adverse CRE demand shocks have been the main factors pushing CRE prices down since the start of 2022. Alongside falling prices, asset write-downs have been the primary driver of the recent sharp drop in the headline profits of real estate firms. Moreover, in many cases real estate firms’ revenue growth has not kept pace with their financing costs, which has potential implications for their repayment capacity.
- JEL Code
- R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 21 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Tighter financing conditions have reduced the affordability of and demand for real estate assets, putting downward pressure on prices. They have also increased the debt service costs faced by existing borrowers, with more-indebted borrowers in countries with widespread variable-rate lending being the most affected. Robust labour markets have thus far supported household balance sheets, thereby mitigating credit risk in banks’ relatively large residential real estate exposures. Commercial real estate firms, by contrast, have faced more severe challenges in a context of rising financing costs and declining profitability. While commercial real estate markets have comparatively low bank exposures, losses in this segment could act as an amplifying factor in the event of a wider shock.
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 31 May 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The presence of institutional investors, particularly investment funds, in euro area residential real estate (RRE) markets has increased markedly in recent years. Yet the implications for housing markets, as well as for financial stability more broadly, remain largely unstudied. This box shows that a positive (negative) demand shock from institutional investors has a positive (negative) and persistent impact on RRE prices between 2007 and 2021. Also, the link between local economic fundamentals and house price growth appears to weaken in regions with a greater presence of institutional investors. This may reinforce the build-up of financial vulnerabilities, as investor demand falls and the cycle turns. It also raises concerns that vulnerabilities in the investment fund sector may amplify any real estate market correction, with potential implications for the financial resilience of banks, households and exposed firms. For this reason, it is important to develop policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of real estate investment funds – such as lower redemption frequencies, longer notice and settlement periods, and longer minimum holding periods.
- JEL Code
- G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
- 10 October 2022
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 19Details
- Abstract
- For a comprehensive RRE risk assessment and to set macroprudential measures targeting RRE, it is important to understand the main drivers of RRE developments and the implications of the various scenarios for the RRE market outlook. In this focus, we propose a model framework based on Bayesian vector autoregressions to shed more light on these issues.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General